Midweek NFL Market Report Week #2

Monitoring line movement is one of the best ways and strategies to project outcomes in the NFL. There are two types of bettors who frequent online sportsbooks: the public and the sharps.

The betting public wagers on football games casually, meaning they lean toward favorites or the teams that are plastered on their television and social media ahead of game day. They usually bet on game day.

The sharp bettors are more opportunistic - doing their research and finding value where not many others do. Books will move lines depending on where the sharps are placing their bets. The sharpest bettors get their action in shortly after the odds are released, as they anticipate which way the lines will move.

Let's take a look at the NFL’s biggest line moves so far for Week 2…

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

Opening Line: pk

Current Line: Pats -2

Sharps are backing Bill Belichick after his week 1 loss vs the Miami Dolphins. Patriot’s QB Mac Jones was initially iffy for week 2 after injuring his back vs Miami, but after it was confirmed that he practiced on Wednesday, the Pats got bet from pk to -2.

Steelers starting RB Najee Harris injured his foot during their week 1 contest vs the Bengals, but it appears it wasn’t serious and he is likely to play vs the Patriots. Running backs are not as valuable as Quarterbacks in the NFL, so this news had little to no impact on the betting line.

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals

Opening Line: Bengals -6

Current Line: Bengals -8

Sharps are backing the Bengals after Dallas looked terrible during their SNF matchup vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only did they struggle, they also lost franchise QB Dak Prescott for 4-6 weeks due to a thumb injury.

The Cowboys must now count on inexperienced QB Cooper Rush to lead their offense. This could be a tall task for Rush, as it was quite clear after watching SNF that the Cowboy’s offense is lacking at the WR position this year.

The Bengals are coming off a tough loss vs their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. In that game, Joe Burrow threw 5 interceptions and the Bengals still nearly won the game. Burrow is a gamer who will look to bounce back with a better performance in week 2.

Arizona Cardinals vs Las Vegas Raiders

Opening Line: Raiders -3

Current Line: Raiders -5.5

Both of these teams suffered week 1 losses last week, but the Arizona Cardinals looked completely outmatched in their contest vs the Kansas City Chiefs losing 44-21. The Raiders were a bit more competitive in their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers losing 24-19.

Arizona had quite a few injuries in week 1. Notably, starters JJ Watt and Rondale Moore both missed week 1, and both are questionable entering week 2. The Cardinals seemed unable to get any pressure on Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes in week 1 without Watt on the field.

The Raiders look to be in a good bounce-back spot in their home opener this week. QB Derek Carr looked like he had instant chemistry with newly signed WR Davante Adams, but seemed to force the ball to him a little too much. Arizona’s defense will likely key on taking away Adams, and that will likely force Carr to spread the ball around more to his other weapons TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow. The Raiders are a better team when ball distribution is more balanced, so this sets Carr up to have a big performance in week 2.