Midweek NFL Market Report Week #3

Every week during the 2022 NFL season, we take a look at the early line movements in the NFL and try to make sense of them. Here are some of the NFL’s biggest line moves so far for Week 3:

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphin

Opening Line: Bills -5

Current Line: Bills -6.5

Both teams had impressive performances in week 2…

The Dolphins trailed by three touchdowns before storming back in the 4th quarter to beat the Baltimore Ravens 42-38. Tua Tagovailoa threw six (6) touchdown passes and the Dolphin’s offense looked unstoppable late in the game.

NFL bettors seem to be more impressed with the Buffalo Bills defeat of the Tennessee Titans, as the Bills curb-stomped the Titans 41-7. Josh Allen again looked like the early frontrunner for MVP as he threw for 317 yds and four (4) touchdowns.

It is important to note that Josh Allen has been very productive vs the Dolphins in his career.

Bettors seem determined to keep betting the Bills until they prove them wrong. Bills backers are riding the hot hand of Josh Allen, and he has a track record of success against the Dolphins.

This line move feels like it is being driven by early public money. It would not be surprising to see the sharps come in and play the Dolphins later in the week if the line continues to climb.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Opening Line: Eagles -4

Current Line: Eagles -6.5

Early money came in on the Philadelphia Eagles as bettors seem to be displaying some recency bias after the Eagles thumped the Minnesota Vikings on MNF 24-7.

The Commanders struggled in week 2 vs the Detroit Lions losing 27-36, and a loss to the lowly Lions also seems to be contributing to the recency bias narrative.

The Eagles came out of their game relatively healthy, but the Commanders have a long list of injured players coming out of week 2, and they could be somewhat short-handed this week.

The Eagles have looked like the team to beat in the NFC East this year, and bettors seem intent on riding the red-hot Eagles out of the gate. But if the line continues to climb, don’t be surprised to see sharp bettors come in later in the week and back the Commanders as a divisional home dog.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Opening total: 40.5

Current total: 38

The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football this week. The total on this game opened 40.5, but has moved down to 38. Both teams are known for playing physical brands of football while relying heavily on their rushing attacks on offense, but that is not the reason that money has flooded in on the under.

The National Weather Service’s forecast calls for highs only around 60 degrees for this game. Showers are possible, and conditions will be breezy with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible. Bettors seem to be anticipating poor weather for TNF, and that may be why the total has drifted lower.