Midweek NFL Market Report Week #4

Every week during the 2022 NFL season, we take a look at the early line movements and try to make sense of them. Here are some of the NFL’s biggest line moves so far for Week #4:

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Opening line: Chargers -7

Current line: Chargers -5

The Chargers did not look like themselves in week 3. Justin Herbert played despite being questionable all week with fractured rib cartilage, but the play calling seemed conservative in an attempt to protect Herbert. The Chargers seemed “off” vs the Jacksonville Jaguars, and they lost 38-10. They are now 1-2 on the season, which is disappointing for a team that had high hopes before the season started.

The Houston Texans lost a close contest last week vs the Chicago Bears 23-20. The Texans are 0-2-1 on the season, but they are 2-0-1 ATS - they are exceeding the oddsmakers expectations this season despite being winless.

This seems like a great bounceback spot for the Chargers after getting embarrassed by the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars at home last week, but the Chargers have quite a few starters on the injury list.

Star WR Keenan Allen was also scheduled to return this week, but he left practice early on Thursday when he potentially re-injured his hamstring.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Opening Line: Lions -6

Current Line: Lions -3.5

The Seahawks lost at home last week to the Atlanta Falcons 27-23. The Seahawks seem to still be searching for an identity after trading Russ Wilson in the offseason. Pete Carroll is known as a defensive coach and hoped to mold the team’s identity around his style, but the defense has struggled mightily this season. Despite the defense’s struggles, Carroll is confident his team will turn it around.

The Lions have been very competitive so far this season, and they lost a close game vs the Minnesota Vikings last week 28-24. Despite winning only 1 game so far this season, the Lions are 3-0 ATS. Coach Dan Campbell seems to get max effort from his team every week, which is a difficult task in the NFL. So, why are the odds dropping on the upstart Lions? Detroit has some significant injuries this week, especially at wide receiver.

Star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has already been declared OUT vs the Seahawks.

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Opening line: Browns -3

Current line: Browns -1

The Atlanta Falcons beat the Seahawks last week 27-23, and that took them to 3-0 ATS this season. The Falcons have exceeded oddsmakers expectations every game so far this season - perhaps they undervalued the Falcons prior to the season, and now bettors are catching on and riding the Falcons?

The Browns beat the Steelers last week 29-17. The Browns recipe for success early this season has been leaning on their league-leading run game on offense combined with a stout defense. Perhaps the line move this week can be explained by the potential absence of All-Pro DE Myles Garrett, who was in a car accident earlier this week.

Garrett avoided serious injuries, but he is likely to miss this week's game vs the Falcons.