Midweek NFL Market Report Week #5

Every week during the 2022 NFL season, we take a look at the early line movements in the NFL and try to make sense of them. Here are some of the NFL’s biggest line moves so far for Week 5:

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening line: TB -7.5

Current line: TB -10

News broke this week that Tom Brady and his wife Giselle have hired divorce lawyers, and a split seems imminent. Perhap Brady was distracted during the Sunday Night Football game vs the KC Chiefs, as the Bucs lost to the Chiefs 41-31. The Buccaneers are now 2-2 on the season.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season. Their record on the field is 2-2, but they are a perfect 4-0 ATS (against the spread). Unfortunately, they lost their top offensive weapon RB Cordarrelle Patterson last week after injuring his knee.

Tom Brady was also injured last week, but he played through the injury in the loss to KC. Brady sat out Wednesday’s practice, but returned on to practice on Thursday and confirmed he would be playing vs the Falcons. Perhaps the line move higher can be attributed to Brady’s confirmed status that he will indeed play on Sunday.

Finally, here is one important stat that bettors shouldn’t ignore: Tom Brady is 51-24 ATS (against the spread) after a loss.

San Francisco 49’ers @ Carolina Panthers

Opening Line: 49’ers -4.5

Current Line: 49’ers -6.5

The San Francisco 49’ers beat the LA Rams 24-9 on MNF in week 4. It was a dominating performance from the 49’ers, and the team seems to be gaining momentum now that Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over at QB.

The Carolina Panthers lost to the Arizona Cardinal 26-16 last week, bringing their record to 1-3. While the 49’ers seem to be gaining momentum after their QB change, the opposite is happening with Carolina as Baker Mayfield has been perhaps the worst starting QB in the NFL.

One bright spot for the Panthers has been their defense, but they lost perhaps their best defensive player, Safety Jeremy Chinn, to injury last week. He was placed on the IR and will miss at least 4 weeks.

The Panthers have been a great fade under coach Matt Ruhle, and they are currently on a 3-15 run ATS (against the spread) in their last 18 games.

This appears to be 2 teams going in the opposite directions, and bettors seem to be backing that theory with their money this week and that has pushed this line higher.

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Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook